Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.