Daily Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Statistics

The average figure of daily homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new government figures. But, security specialists have advised that murder numbers may not point to enhanced national security.

Marked Reduction in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This information was provided by the director of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen over these months is very important,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the least number of homicides were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Fierce cartel infighting, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an apparently steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President said: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between various departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, security researchers warned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is notably true considering the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to correctly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was additionally an issue because it could hide periods when there were notably high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes spikes of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still grappling with high violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to show their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst said.